Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27.25) at Carolina Panthers (20.75)
Tampa Bay Passing Game
Week 9 was a bury the tape day for the Buccaneers offense, it’s really as simple as that. Unable to get anything going offensively out of the gate, the game against New Orleans got out of hand quickly due to multiple three-and-outs and multiple scores by the Saints in succession on the other side of the ball. Before they knew it, Tampa Bay was down three-plus scores and (possibly even more concerning) still could not get a skosh of offense from their star-studded squad. It was Tom Brady’s second game as a Buccaneer with more than one interception, and his 5.5 yards per attempt were his worst in that metric since week 15 of 2019. His 58% completion percentage was also a season low, as were his 5.4 fantasy points. And Brady did not have a particularly good day when he faced the Panthers in week 2, though the team ultimately won due to their prowess on their ground. In that game, Brady threw for just 217 yards and finished as the 30th quarterback in fantasy scoring.
It’s true that in that contest Brady was without Chris Godwin, and one could argue Rob Gronkowski wasn’t truly in playing shape just yet. And this go around he’ll have his full complement of weapons, including the newly signed Antonio Brown, who played on 78% of snaps last week, a strong indicator (as if there was any doubt) that a majority of Tampa Bay’s offensive sets will include three wide receivers and at least one tight end. Nonetheless, the Panthers rank second in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, another strong indicator it won’t be a walk in the park for this offense to rebound after a disastrous week 9.
Another complication due to the signing of Brown — fantasy gamers are going to be in the dark about the projected target distribution between the big four of Mike Evans, Godwin, Brown and Gronkowski. It’s hard to imagine this quartet not blowing up at some point, but we should expect some usage volatility, especially in these early weeks, between the receiving group. In the Awesemo strategy show with Dave Loughran, it was mentioned that week 9 had the feel of a preseason game for Tampa Bay, as they continue to sort out the best way to utilize their superstar weaponry. And of course, in their first game together, the four receivers saw five, (for Brown), six, six and six targets apiece. In short: Brady doesn’t care who he’s throwing to, he cares about exploiting defenses, which will make picking between this group mighty difficult in the coming weeks.
For what it’s worth, Godwin was the team leader in weighted opportunity share amongst the group. Against the Panthers, who have been particularly weak (in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) to primary wideouts, Godwin is likely the safest play. Evans, who still has a salary within the top 15 wideouts, is likely the least safe, but at an extremely low projected ownership, there are much worse tournament plays. Gronkowski, the fourth-highest-salary tight end on the main slate, is the most egregiously priced option on the offense. He’s a pretty easy fade based on the Awesemo projections this weekend.
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Tampa Bay Rushing Game
The Buccaneers’ Week 9 blowout loss to New Orleans was worst-case scenario for fantasy gamers betting on the Tampa Bay backfield. Down three-plus possessions startling quickly, Tampa Bay abandoned the rushing game and forced the ball downfield, which resulted in just seven total opportunities apiece for Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. In this extremely negative game script, Fournette was by far the more valuable back of the two, earning six targets and totaling 41 yards, which, astonishingly, was second best among all Buccaneers skill players. Jones saw four targets, his sixth game this season with at least four targets of his own, but only totaled 18 yards, by far his lowest total of the season.
These results are also in line with coach Bruce Arians’ comments that Fournette was the team’s “nickel” running back, meaning he’d get work as a pass catcher (made much more necessary in a negative game script) and as a goal line back. In neutral game scripts, it’s safer to assume Jones will maintain a steady lead in opportunity share, particularly on the ground, which makes him the significantly better value play this Sunday compared to his teammate. Jones has a salary $200 below Fournette and profiles to have a much larger role, with the Buccaneers coming into the weekend as nearly touchdown favorites and the Panthers ranking in the bottom eight in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. Fournette makes some sense as a contrarian option for tournaments as well, but on paper he’s a much thinner play.
Carolina Passing Game
The Panthers weren’t able to mount a comeback against the world champion Chiefs in week 9, but there were myriad encouraging signs from the Carolina offense that welcomed back Christian McCaffrey but appears to be losing him once again, at least for week 10. More importantly, however, Teddy Bridgewater managed to play relatively efficient football while throwing a season-high 49 times and finished the day in the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring for the first time since week 4. Bridgewater now quietly ranks inside the top five quarterbacks in passing yards this season, and he’s top 15 in total air yards as well. And some of the underlying metrics are extremely encouraging, as Bridgewater ranks third in true completion percentage, second in clean pocket completion percentage and ninth in quarterback expected points added. He’s even surprise many as a rusher, ranking 14th among quarterbacks in rush yards per game. This week, he’ll be facing a Tampa Bay defense that Bridgewater was able to light up for 367 passing yards on 8.7 yards per attempt (though his zero touchdowns crushed his fantasy output) when they last met in week 2. And Tampa Bay ranks 20th in points allowed per play over the last five weeks. It might surprise some, but there’s a ton of upside for Bridgewater and his receiving weapons this weekend.
If it’s quietly a plus matchup for Bridgewater, then fantasy gamers should absolutely be gearing up to play Robby Anderson, despite the Buccaneers ranking top 12 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary wideouts. Anderson has begun to create some distance from fellow stud wide receiver D.J. Moore, solidifying his place as the top option in the Panthers’ passing attack by ranking sixth in NFL in true weighted opportunity share and seeing eight, eight and 13 targets over the last three weeks. And best of all, he’s just the 17th-highest-salary wideout on the main slate, as public perception still deems the Tampa Bay defense as some sort of impenetrable force. The numbers say that’s just not the case.
Needless to say, Anderson looks like an incredible value in the Awesemo projections this weekend. And doubly so for Moore, who still ranks among the top 25 wideouts in true weighted opportunity share, but has taken a backseat to Anderson, and at times Davis (and McCaffrey), in targets. He’s an excellent tournament option in spite of an ownership projection north of 17%, this article’s author has a hunch it won’t be quite that high by the time daily fantasy football lineups lock. Curtis Samuel also looks like a great value and continues to see creative usage as both a rusher and receiver. He’s had seven, eight, nine and 12 total opportunities over his last four games and has the least burdensome salary of the Panthers’ big three at just $4,900 on the main slate this weekend. He could easily outperform salary-based expectations in this spot.
Carolina Rushing Game
McCaffrey returned from his eight-week absence in a major way in week 9, earning 18 carries and 10 targets for 148 yards and two scores. But that’s where the fun stops, as McCaffrey hurt his shoulder in the final moments of the game Sunday, putting his status for Sunday severely in doubt. It’s encouraging that head coach Matt Rhule labeled McCaffrey as day-to-day to begin week 10, but the major sports media seems to believe, as of the time of this article’s writing, that McCaffrey will be sidelined with this new ailment at least for the Panthers’ week 10 game. That puts the spotlight, once again, on Mike Davis. Davis, who played on 31% of the Panther’s snaps in week 9, earning six targets in a carry, should sink right back into his the role he played in weeks three through eight, when he ranked fifth among all players in opportunity shared, earning an average of 39% of the Panther’s targets and rushes during that span. Davis had opportunity totals of more than 20 four times during that span (though none came after week 6) and had target totals of five, six, nine and 10. Assuming McCaffrey sits, Davis becomes the easiest chalk play running back of the season, with a ridiculously low salary of $4,000. Even though the Buccaneers rank second best in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, Davis should get enough work in the passing game to offset that issue. Simply put, players’ success, particularly in multi-entry tournaments, will hinge on how they choose to approach rostering Davis. Assuming he’s the man in Carolina this weekend, Davis will be the unquestioned highest-utilized running back on the slate.
Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 24
Jump to Another Game
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
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