Friday wraps up the work week with a 12-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Sandy Alcantara, Blake Snell and more.
Editors Note: Article originally published Saturday morning
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Targets – Loaded with SP2s
There are just four games on the featured slate tonight with the two “best” pitchers in tricky matchups with RHP Logan Gilbert in Atlanta and RHP Miles Mikolas hosting the Dodgers.
RHP Charlie Morton is getting his start pushed back, so Atlanta will be making this a bullpen game, with 39-year-old RHP Jesse Chavez likely to take on the first half dozen Seattle bats. Keep in mind that the Braves did not play on Thursday, so they have plenty of fresh arms as well as a mix of righties and lefties who have not pitched in the last 72 hours.
All four options on the late-slate have merit, though none should be considered a lock by any means. The flipside of that caveat is that any of these hurlers would be a fine SP2 for the featured slate contests on DraftKings and Yahoo.
LHP Chris Sale has made only 19 starts since the end of the 2019 season. While he is unlikely to reach his former apex, he has had decent results. Tonight will be a good test against a struggling, but ferocious Padres lineup that will be without Manny Machado.
LHP Patrick Sandoval is a good pitcher, though he will not be wowing anyone in the strikeout department. Tonight he will be going against the Twins who will be without Max Kepler and Nick Gordon, with both being on the injured list and Jorge Polanco (hamstring) and Joey Gallo (bruised shin) are dinged up. That still leaves All-Stars Carlos Correa and Brandon Buxton, but the back half of the lineup is below replacement level. Sandoval will look to avoid crooked numbers with his near 50% ground ball rate and a quality start is in play.
RHP Louie Varland dos have strikeout upside, but the youngster is squaring off against Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Hunter Renfroe, who can all capitalize on the slightest mistake. He will be walking a fine line in this matchup, but the fantasy upside is attainable when measured against his reasonable salary.
RHP Joe Musgrove has struggled this season, getting a late start as a result of toe and shoulder issues, then he developed a blister on his foot. All of this has limited him to just four appearances. In his last two starts, both against the Dodgers, he did have 10.2 innings with 10 strikeouts and a decent 3.38 ERA, but that could have been worse as he allowed nearly 1.7 baserunners per inning. Boston will be sending out a lefty-leaning lineup, but Musgrove does have a 26.2% strikeout rate in his last 488 opposite-handed matchups.
Afternoon Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Blake Snell vs. Boston Red Sox — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $9,600 | Yahoo $44
There is no discount for rookie RHP Hunter Brown, though that is reasonable considering he has a cherry matchup against the Oakland Athletics. The A’s have traded away pretty much every hitting asset with value and they are left with a collection of over the hill veterans and longshot prospects. Plus the two most capable hitters have been injured with Ramon Laureano missing time with a concussion and groin injury, along with fellow outfielder Seth Brown who recently suffered a setback during his rehabilitation assignment as he recovers from an oblique issue.
Brown has done a nice job of keeping walks in check, while producing just over a strikeout per inning. The projected Oakland lineup has five hitters who strike out above league average against right-handed hurlers, so this is a stellar situation for the young ace-in-training.
Afternoon Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Aaron Nolas vs. Chicago Cubs — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $9,200 | Yahoo $42
If veteran RHP Aaron Nola were facing the Athletics, he would be the primary pitching target over Brown. He is taking on an overperforming Chicago squad, which just lost Cody Bellinger to the injured list with a bruised knee. Though the Cubbies are a much better lineup than the A’s, they are not anything more than Nola can handle. The Cubs have a couple of promising youngsters and some capable veterans bats, but on the whole, this is a strikeout happy bunch, which is right in the bailiwick for Nola.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: St. Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Looking at the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool, the Cardinals stand out as a solid full-stack option on the featured slate. Injuries have made RHP Noah Syndergaard turn into a mere mortal and over his last 171 frames, he has a paltry 6.37 strikeouts per nine innings ratio. Syndergaard’s fastball is down to 92.1 mph which is 1.7 mph lower than last season and nowhere close to his 98 mph average during his heyday.
Literally anyone in a St. Louis uniform is in play tonight with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras being in the first wave. Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan a trio of lefties in the second wave and then Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman and the bat boy can be used to fill in any gaps for maximum stacking synergy in any configuration.
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Afternoon Slate Target: Philadelphia Phillies vs. RHP Jameson Taillon — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
This season is seems like RHP Jameson Taillon is just throwing batting practice. The former prospect never quite put it all together and this year he will be celebrating his 32nd Thanksgiving. It was all the way back in 2016 when he broke into the league with the Pirates and had a solid, though not spectacular four year run. Of course that ended with an elbow injury that resulted in his second career Tommy John surgery.
Through six starts spanning 24.1 innings, Taillon has allowed 1.52 baserunners per innings and while he has been a little unlucky with a 6.66 ERA, the 5.14 xERA does not portend goodness being right around the corner. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, J.T. Realmuto and Ryan Howard are all in play tonight, though only six of these seven hitters are expected to be in the actual lineup.
Afternoon Slate Target: Houston Astros vs. LHP JP Sears — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
This season in 42.2 innings, LHP JP Sears has already allowed 11 home runs. Heck, hitters want to get after his pitches so much that he actually has more home runs than walks. Though he does have a strikeout per inning, that is window dressing and we will want to load up on the Houston bats tonight.
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick and Jose Abreu all stand out in the home run market, with odds ranging from +290 to +440 and while parlaying home run wagers is mostly a fool’s errand, putting down a finski on a couple of pairings will make this a fun game to watch.
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Jose Altuve saw his first MLB action of the season after returning from a fractured thumb he suffered two months ago during the World Baseball Classic. This will push Jeremy Pena out of the leadoff slot, but also makes the Houston lineup that much deeper. Martin Maldonado is in play as a punt catcher option on DraftKings and Yahoo where he is at a near minimum salary and provides cheap power upside, while also fulfilling the pesky catcher requirement on those sites.
Final Thoughts for Saturday, May 20 | MLB DFS Picks
The Mid-Atlantic looks like the trouble spot with rain in the forecast for New York, Philadelphia and Washington. The latter two games look like they only are facing a potential delay, though in the Big Apple, we could see a possible postponement.
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