NFL DFS High-Upside Picks Week 2: Boom/Bust Probability

By utilizing Stokastic’s NFL boom/bust probability tool, DFS enthusiasts on DraftKings and FanDuel can see how likely players are to reach their ceilings and floors in the main NFL DFS tournaments, relative to their median projections. Let’s see how the data is shaking out for Week 2 and try to locate the NFL DFS upside picks that could propel our lineups to the top of the leaderboards.

We will need to stay in the know on all important NFL player news and status updates as we get closer to kickoff. When projections are more settled on Sunday morning, we’ll do our best to update this article with an updated peek at the boom and bust ratings.

NFL DFS Upside Picks & Fades for Week 2

See below for a quick refresher on Stokastic’s NFL DFS boom/bust tool, along with explanations of what each column represents. We’ll mainly be referencing boom and bust percentages while we search for the highest-upside plays that can help win us DFS tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.

Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.

Ceiling: 75th percentile performance

Floor: 25th percentile performance

Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.

As Stokastic dials in projections leading up to Week 2, the data is sure to change here and there, particularly if any worthwhile news comes out. With that said, keep glued to Stokastic’s tools later on in the week for the most up-to-date numbers.

Check back to this space for a final look at the Week 2 boom probability ratings on DraftKings and FanDuel!

NFL DFS Week 2 Boom Picks – Sunday Final Update

A final article update on Week 2 NFL DFS boom probability ratings (as of noon ET):

Quarterbacks: Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes are all bunched together close at the top of the updated QB boom probability ratings on DraftKings. Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Purdy are in the top five on FD.

Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey, David Montgomery, Joshua Kelley, AJ Dillon and Joe Mixon are the top five in DK boom probability right now. It’s McCaffrey and Montgomery at the top on FD, with Jahmyr Gibbs, Tony Pollard and Mixon in spots three through five. Be sure to browse through the data to see who else stands out.

Wide Receivers: Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams and Ja’Marr Chase are the top three wide receivers in boom probability on both sites, but there are a ton of other great spots to consider. Full data here.

Tight Ends: Travis Kelce is the runaway winner in boom probability on both sites for Week 2 NFL. He’s at 18.6 percent on DraftKings and 20.7 percent on FanDuel.

D/ST: Find the full defense and special teams boom ratings for all Week 2 teams here.

Remember to keep refreshed on Stokastic’s projections and other tools for any last data updates as you make your final preparations on DraftKings and FanDuel.

And, if you haven’t already done so, you need to check out Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims product for Week 2. It’s an amazing tool with a ton of useful data points, and it can save you a lot of time in your daily fantasy football prep each week.

Best of luck in Week 2!

NFL DFS Week 2 Boom Picks – Sunday Update #1

Injury updates: Among other news, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones and Brandin Cooks are not expected to play in Week 2. Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Jerry Jeudy and DeAndre Hopkins are all set to be active.

Stokastic’s NFL DFS player projections have been updated to reflect all of the injury news that’s come in thus far, and the team will continue to adjust as needed until lineups lock.

As of Sunday morning at 9 AM ET, Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams have the three highest boom probabilities across all positions on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Kelce, Diggs and Christian McCaffrey are in the top three. You can access full data for the entire slate on DraftKings and FanDuel here.

We’ll continue to add to this space as projections are finalized for Week 2 NFL DFS.

NFL DFS Picks – Week 2 Boom Picks & Targets

Stokastic’s data team currently has Stefon Diggs ($8,000), Travis Kelce ($7,600) and Deebo Samuel ($5,600) in the top 3 overall spots in DraftKings boom probability for Week 2. Kelce ($8,500), Diggs ($8,000) and David Montgomery ($6,300) have the highest boom probabilities on the main FanDuel slate.

Up first in our early positional overview is a look at the Week 2 boom/bust tool for quarterbacks.

Quarterback: Josh Allen

DraftKings – $7,900; 9.5% Boom | FanDuel – $9,200; 10.1% Boom

The highest-rated quarterback in boom probability on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Josh Allen, who will be aiming to get back on track after a disastrous performance in Week 1 against the Jets. He had four turnovers and was sacked five times in the 22-16 loss.

Allen, who currently checks in with the highest projected ownership at the position, is in a great spot to produce a strong fantasy score at home against the Raiders in Week 2. Buffalo has the highest implied team total of the week at a shade under 28 points and is Stokastic’s top-rated team overall on the DraftKings top stacks tool (fourth on FanDuel).

Running Back: Christian McCaffrey

DraftKings – $8,900; 15.5% Boom | FanDuel – $9,500; 15.6% Boom

Fresh off a dominant Week 1 showing against the Steelers in which he totaled 169 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, McCaffrey is rating highly in boom probability on both sites for this matchup with the Rams in Week 2.

The versatile running back was heavily involved in the season opener, playing 85% of the snaps, and figures to keep getting a lot of work in both the run game and pass game as long as he’s healthy. San Francisco is projected for 25.75 points ahead of Sunday’s road game.

Lions running back David Montgomery is also popping on both sites at a 15.9% boom probability on DraftKings and 17.1% boom probability on FanDuel.

Wide Receiver: Ja’Marr Chase

DraftKings – $7,900; 12.1% Boom | FanDuel – $8,400; 13.5% Boom

We highlighted Diggs in our wide receiver writeup, and he still tops all wide receivers in boom probability for the main slate, but we also wanted to show some love to Ja’Marr Chase. His boom probability is north of 12% on both sites for Week 2.

Chase and the rest of the Bengals offense were a trainwreck in Week 1’s loss to the Browns, but we’ve seen the lofty fantasy scores Joe Burrow and company are capable of when they’re playing well. This showdown with Baltimore looks pretty interesting from a stacking perspective, and Chase’s massive week-to-week upside is well understood at this point. Cincinnati is rated as the second-best overall team to stack on DraftKings, with Baltimore way down on the list. On FanDuel, though, the Ravens are in the top spot with a 37 overall team rating, and the Bengals rank far worse in general.

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Tight Ends

UPDATE: Travis Kelce has just been added to Stokastic’s Week 2 NFL projections and is by far the No. 1 tight end in boom probability on both sites.

It’s a little tough at tight end this week because of all of the uncertainty. The statuses of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller are all up in the air for Week 2 as of Friday morning. We’ll definitely need to see how these injury situations pan out, especially with Kelce, who has extreme NFL DFS boom potential whenever he’s active. Check back to the tool on Sunday morning after there is more clarity and all of the data is fully updated.

Earlier in the week we went over Tyler Higbee and Luke Musgrave in our tight end preview for Week 2. Stokastic is liking Musgrave’s potential return at his low salary on DraftKings, but he’s not grading out as strongly at $5,000 on FanDuel. Priced at $5,100 for Week 2’s tilt with San Francisco, Higbee is the top-rated tight end in boom probability on FanDuel at 12.5%. The Titans’ Chig Okonkwo is also rating favorably in boom probability on both sites at his low prices.

NFL DFS Picks – Week 2 Bust Picks & Fades

With the boom/bust tool as a reference, we can see who is looking suspect in NFL player projections at this point in the week.

Here are a couple of team and positional situations to track for Week 2 NFL DFS, as of Friday morning:

New York Jets Snapshot

Aaron Rodgers is done for the year, so Zach Wilson gets handed the reigns, which is obviously a hit to the value of Garrett Wilson and the entire Jets offense.

New York has a paltry team total of 14.5 points for Week 2’s game in Dallas, easily the lowest on the NFL odds board for the week, and the bust probabilities are high for most all of the team’s DFS-relevant options.

Here are the Jets’ current bust probabilities on the Week 2 DraftKings tool:

Zach Wilson: 59.2%
Garrett Wilson: 71.6%
Breece Hall: 93.1%
Dalvin Cook: 81.9%
Allen Lazard: 60.2%

Interestingly enough, while the Jets are showing up poorly in boom/bust and top stacks for DraftKings, they are rating quite well in the top stacks tool on FanDuel at time of writing, behind only Baltimore in overall rating. We’ll have to wait and see how the dust settles on both sites as Sunday lock approaches, but all in all, New York appears to be an interesting case study for Week 2.

Tight End Injuries

As we mentioned before, we are still waiting for more news on expensive tight ends. We at least now know that Kelce will play in Week 2. Andrews and Waller are also included in our NFL DFS projections as of now, and while Kelce is showing high boom potential and low bust potential against the Jaguars, the same can’t be said for the other two.

Mark Andrews: 84.4% bust probability at $6,700 on DraftKings / 80.2% bust probability at $8,000 on FanDuel

Darren Waller: 71.7% bust probability at $5,500 on DraftKings / 61.9% bust probability at $6,600 on FanDuel

Now that Kelce is set to return in Week 2, he’s going to start gaining huge amounts of steam in terms of projected ownership, leaving Andrews and Waller largely forgotten even if they end up being active.

REMEMBER: Stay up to date with the NFL player news and projection updates leading up to lock on Sunday to ensure you’re making the most informed lineup decisions possible. A lot could change in the data as more player availability information comes out.

Accurate player projections are only one part of successful lineup building on DraftKings and FanDuel, and as you get your Week 2 lineups locked in, Stokastic is here to help. We have more free NFL DFS content on the NFL homepage, premium DFS tools including NFL Sims and the Lineup Generator , and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel.

You can also chat daily fantasy sports strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!

Good luck and enjoy Week 2!

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Author

Scott Krones

Scott is a writer and editor at Stokastic and OddsShopper with a passion for DFS and sports betting. His previous stops include Better Collective, RotoGrinders and RotoWire, and his favorite team is Liverpool.