We’re back with a seven-game MLB slate main slate that locks at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, April 10 (Main Slate)
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Astros-Royals: Seth Lugo
Stokastic’s Top-2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400
Coming off a slate that featured Tyler Glasnow, Zack Wheeler, Nathan Eovaldi and a host of other quality pitching options, the pickings are extremely slim on tonight’s slate. With only seven games on the docket and weather concerns clouding Baltimore, Atlanta and Cincinnati, most of the viable arms are coming in either correctly or over owned. Newly minted Royal Seth Lugo is the odd man out, however, and he’s the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings at $8,400.
Although picking on Houston is usually a recipe for disaster, I’m high on Lugo this season, and the field is completely ignoring him, opting for worse pitchers in better spots instead. While I can’t fault this strategy, it leaves Lugo as one of the best tournament differentiators on the slate.
As of this writing, Lugo is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools. Currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 11.5% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, Lugo is only projected to be in 2.7% of lineups. While these numbers might change if other games get postponed, Lugo is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options on the board despite a brutal matchup with the Astros.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Brewers-Reds: Brewers
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.3%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 5.9%
On an already small slate with weather a real concern in three games, ownership is extremely concentrated amongst the teams in good weather spots. As of this writing, teams like the Braves, Reds and Mets aren’t getting nearly the love they should be getting as the field seems to be already crossing them out. While those teams look good from a leverage perspective, the Brewers have emerged as the top contrarian stack on DraftKings.
Although a matchup with Reds ace Hunter Greene is far from an easy task, Greene gives up a ton of power when he’s off, and the Brewers have the upside to make him pay. While I’m not completely buying what they’re selling for the long term, Milwaukee’s offense has been fantastic to start the season. Improvements by Christian Yelich have been noticeable while Rhys Hoskins has provided a nice surge of power in the middle of their lineup. Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio have given this offense some much needed youth and speed, and there’s a lot to like the construction of this lineup moving forward.
Milwaukee is currently projected to be the top stack 6.3% of the time this slate plays out, and only 1.3% of the field is projected to stack them. While potential weather concerns might be playing into this low ownership projection, the Brewers are undoubtedly the top contrarian stack on the board.
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