Sunday gets the action going a little earlier than usual with a 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Charlie Morton against the Rockies, along with Anthony Santander, Austin Hays and Adley Rutschman as the Orioles take on RHP Jameson Taillon.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Charlie Morton vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $42
This is a favorable matchup for RHP Charlie Morton, who continues chugging along in his age-39 season. He is firing on all cylinders, with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, almost half of his offerings ending up as ground balls and a loaded offense backing him up in the win column. Lefties have been able to get to him, but if he can mitigate the likes of Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones and Mike Moustakas, Morton should be in line for a fine afternoon.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Ronel Blanco vs. Cincinnati Reds — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $5,500 | FanDuel $6,300 | Yahoo $35
This afternoon will be RHP Ronel Blanco’s third consecutive start in the Houston rotation. The late-blooming prospect broke camp as a member of the bullpen before being sent down to Triple-A Sugar Land to build up the endurance to become a starter. The 29-year-old has a good fastball, and he has been able to mix in a slider as a solid secondary offering that has been effective. In his starts versus the Angels and in Toronto against the Blue Jays, he has accrued 11.1 innings, seven walks, three home runs and 10 strikeouts. This is definitely a price play, as the salary cap relief is immense on DraftKings and decent on Yahoo.
The Cincinnati offense is not one to be taken lightly, but with young talent comes a lack of experience and day-to-day consistency. In each of his starts, Blanco has logged 94 pitches, which bode well for closing out the fifth inning and being eligible for the win.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Zack Wheeler at Oakland Athletics — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $52
After getting knocked around by the Nationals in Washington for seven runs in just 3.2 innings, RHP Zack Wheeler has been dialed in. Over his last 13.1 innings, he has allowed only one earned run against 15 strikeouts. Full disclosure: 7.1 of those innings were against the Detroit Tigers.
On tap this afternoon is a cherry matchup against the Athletics in Oakland. Wheeler gets a park upgrade while facing an offense that has plated only four more runs than the Tigers this season. The A’s projected lineup has a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season-plus, which bodes well for Wheeler, who has a 26.5% strikeout rate during the same timeframe. Philadelphia has been installed as -255 favorites to garner the win, and Wheeler should be in the mix for a quality start as well, which is worth crucial bonus points on FanDuel.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles at RHP Jameson Taillon — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
The Sunday featured game on Peacock has moved back 90 minutes for Father’s Day, which in turn has the DFS slate starting a half hour earlier than what we have become accustomed to. The next wave of games does not get underway until 1:35 p.m. ET, but that is fine with DFS gamers since it gives us a chance to pick on RHP Jameson Taillon.
After being a prospect forever with the Pirates and then spending the last two seasons in the Bronx with the Yankees, Taillon is now in his age-31 season and struggling mightily. Walks have been off the charts for the journeyman hurler, with a career-worst 3.2 per nine innings. He does not have enough strikeout upside to ward off the power allowed to opposing offenses, which has led to four multi-home run games in his last seven appearances, along with a 7.47 ERA and 6.40 FIP in these 31.1 innings.
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Orioles as a popular stack today, with Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Austin Hays popping across early lineup builds. There will be ample ways to find differentiation at other positions, or even among the Batters of Birdland. Jorge Mateo is likely to be at the bottom of the order, and he has extra-base-hit upside as well as 20 steals, which are the fifth most in the league. Ramon Urias is another down-the-lineup option, who has a chance to score if he can get on base in front of his talented teammates.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Target: Houston Astros vs. RHP Luke Weaver — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Even with Yordan Alvarez out for the next month or so, this is a daunting lineup for a pitcher the likes of RHP Luke Weaver. Despite casual gamers still thinking of Weaver as an up-and-coming prospect, this is his eighth season plying his trade in The Show. Sunday marks his 126th appearance and his 92nd career start.
This season in 10 appearances, Weaver has allowed four or more runs on six occasion while also being saddled with 2.1 home runs per nine innings. Hitters from both sides of the plate have found success against the journeyman, so this is sort of a “fish in a barrel” scenario. Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are the power trio to target on Sunday. Former Chicago White Sox slugger Jose Abreu has finally found his swing, with three of his four round-trippers coming in the last seven games. During this stretch he has a .333/.375/.733 triple-slash line, and with everyone having been burned multiple times this season when backing the 2020 American League MVP, hopefully The Masses stay away.
Late Slate Target: Seattle Mariners vs. RHP Lance Lynn — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The wheels have come off the wagon for RHP Lance Lynn this season, and he has been particularly putrid over his last three games. In these outings, across a mere 14 innings, he has allowed half a dozen home runs, which has left him holding the bag on a 10.93 ERA. While his pitch mix and velocity are nearly identical to last year when he authored a 3.99 ERA and 3.62 xERA across 121.2 innings, this year is basically the reverse, with a 6.75 ERA and 5.44 xERA.
Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic are a fine trio of outfielders who can be the core building blocks for any Seattle stack. Veteran Eugenio Suarez still has some pop in his bat, and he profiles well against Lynn’s offerings. Cal Raleigh is a great way to check off the catcher requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo, while Ty France or J.P. Crawford are intriguing options at the top of the order.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Rookie RHP Bryce Miller looked good on Monday, holding the Marlins to one lonely run while striking out six. He was given a full week off after two dreadful showings where he allowed 15 runs and a trio of taters across seven combined innings against the Yankees and in Texas versus the Rangers.
Though the White Sox have a relatively low implied run total of 3.5 today, they have several long shot options popping in the sports wagering market. Miller has allowed only four home runs in 44.1 innings this season, but they have all come in his last three starts. Looking at the new true odds feature from OddsShopper, we can see that Eloy Jimenez stands out, with his +400 home run line being off by nearly 12% when compared with “true odds” of +337. This is like getting a booster from the sportsbook without having to do any extra legwork.
Jake Burger is at +450 with “true odds” of +412, while Andrew Vaughn is +520 and +465 with his marks. Home run props can be very fickle, but dropping a finski on one or two does give an extra rooting interest in the game and with a little luck can be self-funding entertainment.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, June 18 | MLB DFS Picks
Things look dicey in Minnesota, which is a shame since that means it could be risky picking on the Detroit Tigers. Fortunately, there are five games in the 2 o’clock hour, which will provide ample pivot scenarios if the forecast remains unfavorable.
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