Stokastic ight have made a name for itself with the best MLB DFS projections, but we quickly realized that there’s no reason to not use the industry’s best projections for MLB prop betting. That’s how MLB Bet Pro began. It uses MLB player projections to find the right numbers on props, then scours the major sportsbooks to see who has the best price. It turns out tons of high ROI bets every day, including these three New York Yankees-Los Angeles Dodgers props in their Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
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Tonight’s Top MLB Player Props From MLB Bet Pro | June 4
1. Will Smith Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500, PointsBet)
There’s no doubt that Will Smith is one of the top hitting catchers in baseball. He is batting .315 with .415 OBP so far in 2023. They add to his .531 SLG and .946 OPS. Pretty impressive for a backstop. And while it may be Smith’s best statistical season by far, the books are still too low, pricing his home run prop where it should be for his career averages.
You can expect some negative regression, but +500 is priced too low according to MLB Bet Pro. The projections peg Smith for a home run 20% of the time in this spot against Domingo German and the Yankees. That’s a 10% edge, and a bet you should be making to grow your bankroll. Just be mindful of the 20% win probability and how much you stake on this one. It’s a long-term winner, but only connects one in five games, so you don’t want to risk huge amounts. At +500 MLB Bet Pro suggests laying about 1.5% of your bankroll for sustainable growth.
2. DJ LeMahieu Under 0.5 Hits (+185, BetMGM)
Across from German, Bobby Miller takes the mound for the Dodgers. The rookie has a lot of potential and comes from one of the deepest organizations in baseball over the years. He’s got a shot to show what he’s made of on a big stage tonight in an island game on National television against the Yankees.
The Yankees implied run total is pretty low, just 4.2 runs as of this writing. It indicates that Vegas is giving a fair amount of credit to Bobby Miller. However, they’re still too high on some of the Yankees batters’ hit props, creating a fair amount of value. The player that sticks out most in the MLB Bet Pro model is DJ LeMahieu. The veteran is lines at +185 to not get a hit in this game. LaMahieu is a strong hitter, but the price is just right. The projections have DJ getting over the number 36% of the time, leaving a 4% expected ROI on this under. You can lay about 1.8% of your bankroll as a solid stake for this Yankees-Dodgers prop.
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3. Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425, PointsBet)
Rounding out the top-3 Yankees-Dodgers MLB bets is another home run prop. It’s surprising to see the books get Mookie Betts wrong, but luckily there is value on the superstar’s prop line tonight. There’s no need to go through Betts’ accolades, he always is up there in every statistical category, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to add to his home run count leading off tonight against the Yankees.
Betts should connect with a dinger about 19% of the time, making this another higher risk-higher reward bet. At just over 4:1 you can risk just under a percentage point of your bankroll to lock in this 4% ROI wager.